Introduction: Pakistan’s Growing Climate Crisis
Pakistan, a country increasingly vulnerable to climate-related disasters, has experienced 15% more rainfall than average this year, highlighting the intensifying impact of climate change driven by human activity. As the monsoon season unleashed devastating floods across northern regions, new research confirms that the underlying cause is not just natural variability—but human-induced global warming.
A detailed study conducted by the World Weather Attribution Group, a coalition of 18 scientists from renowned global institutions including Imperial College London, Pakistan Meteorological Department, and others from the UK, France, and the Netherlands, has found compelling evidence that human activities have made extreme weather events, such as intense monsoon rains and flooding, more frequent and dangerous in Pakistan.
Key Findings from the Climate Study
Human Activity Behind Increased Rainfall
The research revealed that the recent excessive rainfall in Pakistan—although not a record-breaking event—was intensified by approximately 15% due to climate change. This increase has been directly attributed to the warming of the atmosphere caused by human actions, primarily the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas.
The researchers combined real-time weather observations with advanced climate modeling tools to simulate various scenarios. The conclusion was clear: in a world without man-made global warming, monsoon rainfall would have been significantly less intense, resulting in fewer floods and less destruction.
Scientific Consensus and Global Temperatures
According to the study, the planet has already warmed by 1.3°C since the pre-industrial era. Under these warmer conditions, intense 30-day monsoon events in Pakistan are now expected every 5 years, as opposed to rarer occurrences in the past.
Dr. Maryam Zakaria, from the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, stated:
“Pakistan’s monsoon is intensifying with each passing year. Even months with above-average rainfall, which previously didn’t cause much damage, are now leading to widespread deaths and destruction due to the changing climate.”
Pakistan’s Monsoon Season: A Blessing and a Threat
Seasonal Significance
The monsoon season, which stretches from late June to September, brings 70–80% of Pakistan’s annual rainfall. It is essential for replenishing water sources, supporting agriculture, and maintaining ecological balance. However, due to climate change, monsoons have become increasingly erratic, unpredictable, and dangerous.
Rainfall and Flood Damage in 2025
Between June 26 and August 3, 2025, torrential rains led to flooding in northern Pakistan, killing 300 people, with 242 deaths occurring in the hardest-hit regions. Several districts declared a state of emergency as floodwaters damaged infrastructure, washed away homes, destroyed crops, and made roads impassable.
Despite the significant damage, historical rainfall data indicates that this year’s rainfall was not unprecedented, which further reinforces the study’s claim: it is not just about how much it rains, but how climate change is making rainfall events more deadly.
Why Is Pakistan So Vulnerable?
Low Emissions, High Risk
Pakistan contributes only 0.5% of the world’s historical greenhouse gas emissions, yet it ranks 152nd in climate change preparedness according to global indices. This disparity places the country in a fragile position, making it disproportionately vulnerable to the consequences of a warming planet.
Extreme Weather Costs and Economic Impact
A 2023 UN report warned that without aggressive mitigation and adaptation measures, climate-related disasters could cost Pakistan $1.2 trillion by 2050. This includes losses from:
- Floods
- Heatwaves
- Droughts
- Crop failures
- Infrastructure damage
In 2022, the country suffered devastating floods that killed over 1,700 people, and yet, three years later, the same patterns of destruction persist.
Climate Financing: The Growing Funding Gap
Pakistan’s Need for Climate Adaptation Support
The study urges that Pakistan requires $40–50 billion annually to effectively adapt to the impacts of climate change. This includes:
- Building resilient infrastructure
- Improving flood defenses
- Investing in early warning systems
- Relocating vulnerable communities
- Strengthening disaster response
However, the current international support falls drastically short of these requirements.
COP29 and the Global Climate Finance Commitment
At COP29, wealthy nations (historically the largest emitters) pledged to increase their support to $300 billion per year by 2035 for developing nations. However, the reality is disappointing. According to the report:
- Current annual support = $28 billion
- Estimated annual need = $215–387 billion
- Funding gap = $187–359 billion
This staggering gap puts millions at risk in countries like Pakistan, where climate disasters are no longer hypothetical—they are recurring, deadly realities.
Fossil Fuels: The Root Cause of Intensifying Monsoons
Call for Global Energy Transition
The report clearly links fossil fuel combustion with rising global temperatures, which in turn intensify monsoon rainfall and the likelihood of floods. Dr. Maryam Zakaria emphasized:
“With every 0.1°C rise in global temperature, monsoon rains will get more intense. This underscores the urgency of transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.”
This is not just a national issue for Pakistan—it is a global crisis that demands a collective, coordinated international response.
Local Actions and Global Responsibility
While Pakistan can invest in climate adaptation and resilience, it cannot mitigate global climate change alone. Major emitters such as the United States, China, the European Union, and other industrialized nations must drastically cut emissions and fulfill their financial commitments to vulnerable countries.
Climate Resilience in Pakistan: The Road Ahead
Adoption of National Strategies
Pakistan has made some strides toward climate resilience. Government agencies and NGOs have initiated programs on:
- Reforestation and afforestation (e.g., the Billion Tree Tsunami)
- Water conservation
- Disaster management systems
- Climate-smart agriculture
However, the country’s efforts are heavily constrained by lack of funding, technical capacity, and institutional coordination.
Urgent Need for Long-Term Planning
The study stresses that short-term relief is not enough. Pakistan needs:
- A long-term national adaptation plan
- Inclusive urban planning to avoid development in flood-prone areas
- Modernized water infrastructure
- Community-based climate education
These steps must be taken now to protect future generations from climate catastrophes that will only get worse if no action is taken.
Conclusion: A Global Wake-Up Call from Pakistan
Pakistan’s experience with 15% higher rainfall in 2025 is not an isolated event—it is a warning sign for the rest of the world. The findings of the World Weather Attribution Group are clear: climate change, fueled by human activity, is making weather extremes more frequent and deadly.
While Pakistan bears the brunt of the damage, it is not responsible for the emissions that caused this crisis. Wealthy nations must rise to their historical responsibility by not only cutting emissions but also delivering on climate finance promises.
In the face of escalating monsoon disasters, Pakistan cannot afford to wait. And neither can the world.
