Pakistan, one of the largest cotton-producing countries in the world, is once again facing a severe challenge to its agricultural economy. Recent monsoon rains and devastating floods have heavily damaged cotton fields across major producing regions, raising concerns that the country may not achieve its target of record cotton production in the 2025–26 season.
Cotton, known as “white gold,” plays a pivotal role in Pakistan’s economy, not only as a critical cash crop for farmers but also as the backbone of the country’s textile and garment industry, which accounts for over 60% of Pakistan’s exports. However, natural disasters, coupled with plant diseases and viruses, have repeatedly hampered the sector’s growth, leaving policymakers and farmers alike worried about the country’s agricultural future.
Impact of Rains and Floods on Cotton Zones
Reports suggest that the cotton crop has been adversely affected in most cotton-producing zones. Torrential rains in Punjab and Sindh, combined with floodwater submerging large tracts of farmland, have stunted crop growth, washed away seedlings, and triggered an outbreak of pests and plant viruses.
- In Punjab, the Bahawalnagar district, the province’s largest cotton-producing area, has been hit the hardest.
- According to conservative estimates, nearly 40% of the cotton crop in Bahawalnagar has already been lost.
- Experts warn that further rains and possible flooding could push the damage even higher.
- In Sindh, cotton zones such as Sukkur, Khairpur, Sanghar, and Nawabshah have also witnessed crop deterioration due to excessive waterlogging and high nighttime temperatures, which hinder cotton growth.
Agricultural experts stress that the full scale of the damage will only be known once floodwaters recede and assessment teams carry out field surveys.
Virus Attacks Add to Farmers’ Misery
While floods remain a visible disaster, another silent threat has also emerged: cotton leaf curl virus (CLCuV) and other viral diseases.
- These viruses are spreading rapidly in areas with underground freshwater reserves, known locally as the Kachha belt.
- Punjab’s cotton belts and some Sindh districts are witnessing higher-than-usual virus infestations, compounding the damage caused by rains.
- The virus weakens the plants, reduces boll formation, and slashes per-acre yields, leaving farmers with lower incomes and rising costs of crop protection.
Chairman of the Cotton Ginners Forum, Ehsan-ul-Haq, highlighted that these twin threats—floods and viruses—pose a serious risk to the country’s ambition of boosting cotton output by 20–25% compared to last year.
Cotton Ginning Season Begins Amid Challenges
The new cotton ginning season, which started on May 1 in parts of Punjab and Sindh, initially carried optimism. Farmers and ginners expected a bumper crop, thanks to increased acreage and favorable weather forecasts earlier in the year.
- Initial projections suggested that Pakistan could finally reverse years of declining cotton output and record significant gains.
- The government also targeted 20% higher cotton exports, banking on surplus production.
However, the reality has changed drastically. With fields submerged and crops under viral attack, the industry’s hopes of achieving these targets are fading fast.
Pakistan’s Historical Struggle with Cotton Production
This is not the first time that Pakistan’s cotton sector has faced a crisis. Over the past decade, production levels have repeatedly fallen short due to:
- Climate Change: Unpredictable weather patterns, prolonged heatwaves, and erratic rainfall have disrupted crop cycles.
- Flooding: Major floods in 2010, 2014, and 2022 devastated millions of acres of farmland, including cotton fields.
- Pests and Viruses: The persistent cotton leaf curl virus and bollworm infestations have reduced yields.
- Shift to Other Crops: Farmers in Sindh and Punjab have increasingly shifted to sugarcane, rice, and maize, which are less vulnerable to pests and often more profitable.
As a result, Pakistan has had to import cotton in recent years to meet the demands of its massive textile sector—a blow to both the economy and foreign exchange reserves.
The Role of Cotton in Pakistan’s Economy
Cotton is not just another crop in Pakistan; it is the lifeline of the textile industry, which employs millions of workers and contributes heavily to the country’s exports.
- Pakistan is traditionally among the top five cotton-producing nations, alongside India, China, the United States, and Brazil.
- Cotton supports over 1.5 million farmers directly and indirectly sustains countless jobs in ginning factories, spinning mills, and garment industries.
- Last year, Pakistan produced 242,000 tons of cotton lint, but industry experts warn that this figure may shrink unless immediate reforms and relief measures are implemented.
Any shortfall in domestic cotton production directly translates into higher import bills, weakening Pakistan’s balance of payments.
Bahawalnagar: The Epicenter of Cotton Damage
Agricultural surveys have confirmed that Bahawalnagar district in Punjab has borne the brunt of the recent rains and floods.
- Known as the cotton basket of Punjab, Bahawalnagar contributes significantly to the province’s overall production.
- Farmers in the district are reporting that almost 40% of their standing crop has been destroyed, leaving them with mounting debts and little hope for recovery this season.
- The looming threat of further rains and floods could wipe out even more acreage, compounding the economic pain for farmers.
Local farmer associations are urging the government to announce an immediate relief package, including compensation, subsidized fertilizers, and virus-resistant seed varieties.
Sugarcane vs. Cotton: The Cropping Dilemma
In recent years, farmers in Punjab and Sindh have increasingly turned towards sugarcane cultivation, which thrives in the freshwater-rich Kachha areas.
- Sugarcane offers better price stability and is less vulnerable to viruses compared to cotton.
- However, the rapid shift to sugarcane has reduced the area available for cotton cultivation, creating a long-term challenge for the textile sector.
Ehsan-ul-Haq pointed out that sugarcane’s expansion in freshwater areas has led to environmental pollution and soil degradation, further weakening cotton’s resistance to viral attacks.
Government’s Response and Policy Measures
The federal and provincial governments are aware of the gravity of the situation. Officials from the Ministry of National Food Security and Research have already begun reviewing crop loss reports.
Key measures under consideration include:
- Emergency relief funds for affected farmers.
- Distribution of virus-resistant cotton seed varieties.
- Expansion of crop insurance schemes to cover climate-induced losses.
- Investment in flood management infrastructure to protect farmlands.
However, critics argue that government responses are often too slow and poorly coordinated, leaving farmers to bear the brunt of losses.
Cotton Year 2025–26: What Lies Ahead?
While Pakistan had high hopes for the cotton year 2025–26, experts now fear that the dream of record-breaking cotton production may once again remain unfulfilled.
- Expected gains of 20–25% over last year’s production are now in doubt.
- Virus attacks and floods are likely to cause double-digit percentage losses in Punjab and Sindh.
- Farmers’ reduced income may discourage them from planting cotton in the next season, creating a vicious cycle of declining acreage and rising imports.
Conclusion: The Urgent Need for Reform
The current crisis highlights the urgent need for long-term agricultural reforms in Pakistan. Without decisive action, the country risks losing its competitive edge in the global textile market.
Key Recommendations:
- Climate-resilient infrastructure to mitigate the effects of floods and droughts.
- Introduction of genetically improved, virus-resistant cotton varieties.
- Balanced crop policies to discourage excessive sugarcane cultivation.
- Stronger research and development programs in pest management.
- Farmer awareness campaigns to promote better crop protection practices.
Unless these measures are taken, the dream of making Pakistan a self-sufficient and leading cotton producer will remain elusive. The devastation caused by rains and floods in 2025 serves as yet another reminder that climate change, mismanagement, and neglect cannot be ignored any longer.
