The Centre for Afghanistan, Middle East and Africa (CAMEA) at the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad (ISSI) hosted the launch of the book ‘Navigating Uncertainty: Perspectives on Post-Taliban Afghanistan and Geopolitical Footsteps,” edited by Mr. Sheharyar Khan and jointly published by the Hans Seidel Foundation (HSF) and the National Dialogue Forum (NDF). The speakers at the book launch included Ambassador Sohail Mahmood, Director General ISSI; Ambassador Khalid Mahmood, Chairman BOG, ISSI; Ms. Amina Khan, Director CAMEA, ISSI; Mr. Sheharyar Khan, Executive Director NDF; Ambassador Mansoor Ahmed Khan, Pakistan’s former Ambassador to Afghanistan; Dr. Hassan Abbas, Distinguished Professor Near East South Asia Strategic Studies Centre (NESA), National Defense University in Washington D.C; and Mr. Arno Kirchhof, Deputy Head of Mission, German Embassy, Islamabad. Mr. Khurram Dastgir Khan, former Foreign Minister was the Keynote speaker and Chief Guest.
Ms. Amina Khan, in her opening remarks, stated that the book represents a significant intellectual contribution providing nuanced and wide ranging perspectives on a subject of profound importance as reflected in the title. She further said that at a time when the discourse on Afghanistan often seems dominated by narratives from outside the region, it is encouraging to see such a compelling body of work emerge from within our own part of the world, not only adding to the academic discourse but more so providing authenticity often missing in external narratives.
DG ISSI Ambassador Sohail Mahmood, speaking on the occasion, stated that for more than four decades now, Afghanistan has figured prominently in the news. This includes: The Soviet invasion in 1979, the massive outflow of refugees, the gun-running and narcotics trafficking, the concertation of fighters from different parts of the world to partake in the Afghan Jihad, the protracted UN-facilitated proximity talks, the eventual Geneva Accords and the Soviet withdrawal, the end of the Cold War, the country’s lapse into a fratricidal civil war, the growing profile of Al-Qaeda, the rise and rule of the Taliban (1.0), the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the subsequent U.S.-led military operation, the 20-years long ISAF presence, the incompetence and corruption of successive Kabul regimes during this period, and finally the dramatic events of August 2021. He opined that the book is also an attempt by the regional and international Afghanistan-watchers to offer both insights into the evolving situation in Afghanistan and ideas on a possible way forward. Specifically, the book delves into Afghanistan’s internal dynamics, its external relations, and the sharp inter-play of geo-political factors. He stressed that as a close neighbour, Pakistan has a unique and enduring interest in Afghanistan’s stability and prosperity. It is essential that the Interim Afghan authorities help resolve the issue of cross-border terrorism in an acceptable manner. The shared history, cultural links, and economic interdependence between the two countries necessitate a collaborative approach to address common challenges. It is time for Kabul to turn the page and engage with the Afghan people and Afghanistan’s international partners with greater sensitivity and more prudence, he concluded.
Mr. Khurram Dastagir Khan, while giving his keynote address stated that the book is a reminder that Afghanistan is a reality and has to be dealt with. The post-withdrawal Afghanistan for the first time in many decades is territorially united. There is a tremendous decline in narcotics, increase in primary school enrolment, and a lot of attention is being paid to rural Afghanistan. The current regime in Afghanistan is evidently there to stay and Pakistan will have to work with it and there are several challenges like terrorism that threaten both Afghanistan and Pakistan. He further opined that Pakistan will have to find a way amidst these complexities. Afghanistan is a crucial transit country from South Asia to Central Asia.
Mr. Sheharyar Khan, while introducing the book, said that Afghanistan — often regarded as the heart of Asia — has long been at the crossroads of cultures, conflicts, and aspirations. Following the seismic shift marked by the Taliban’s return to power, it became evident that we needed to look beyond the prevailing narratives of war and chaos. He said the purpose of this book is to illuminate the complexities of Afghanistan by bringing together diverse perspectives that dissect the nation’s political, economic, and social realities.
Dr. Hassan Abbas highlighted key issues surrounding Taliban governance, security, and regional dynamics. He emphasized that the Taliban have demonstrated remarkable adaptability, retaining much of the existing infrastructure, with power centralized in Kandahar, where all major decisions are made. He noted that the Taliban’s unity is key to their survival and credited their regional outreach efforts while cautioning against the resurgence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Ambassador Mansoor Khan highlighted that while the Doha Peace Agreement ended the war in Afghanistan, it failed to resolve internal conflicts, which remain influenced by great power dynamics. He noted that the Afghan Taliban have not fully transitioned from insurgency to governance, focusing primarily on security rather than inclusivity, human rights, or counter-terrorism. Pakistan, he emphasized, faces challenges in shifting from a security-based to a political approach, necessitating a coherent strategy for engagement.
Mr. Arno Kirchhof underscored the importance of reflecting on the lessons learned from the Taliban’s governance between 2001 and 2021, acknowledging Afghanistan’s pivotal role on the global stage and Germany’s continued support in its development. Highlighting a noticeable decline in narcotics production, he emphasized the critical need to address humanitarian challenges, safeguard human rights, and prioritize the education of women and girls, recognizing it as fundamental to any nation’s progress.
Ambassador Khalid Mahmood, in his concluding remarks, emphasized the uncertainty in Afghanistan, stressing the need for a cautious and strategic approach to address its challenges. He identified terrorism, economic cooperation, and human rights as the primary concerns, with terrorism being a critical issue for Pakistan due to its shared border and regional dynamics. He advocated for a regional approach to tackle these issues effectively.
