ISLAMABAD – The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued a comprehensive flood alert across various regions of Pakistan, warning citizens and provincial administrations of possible flooding and landslides due to heavy rainfall expected in the next 24 to 48 hours. This advisory, based on data from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), comes at a time when climate-related vulnerabilities are on the rise, especially in glacier-prone regions and low-lying urban areas.
The alert covers almost the entire country, including Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Sindh, Balochistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), and the federal capital, Islamabad, highlighting a serious risk of urban flooding, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in mountainous regions.
NDMA’s Nationwide Alert: Preparing for Potential Flood Emergencies
In its official statement released Thursday, the NDMA warned that melting glaciers and continuous monsoon rains could combine to create dangerous flood conditions. Particular attention has been drawn to northern regions, including:
- Chitral
- Upper Dir
- Swat
- Kumrat Valley
- Gilgit-Baltistan
These regions are especially vulnerable to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) due to rapid glacier melting triggered by rising temperatures and sudden rains.
“The risk of flood situations has increased significantly in Gilgit-Baltistan and surrounding regions due to accelerated glacier melting. Citizens are advised to avoid traveling to mountainous areas unless absolutely necessary,” the NDMA warned.
The NDMA also instructed local administrations to remain on high alert, ensure drainage systems are functional, and stockpile emergency supplies such as food, clean drinking water, tents, and medical kits in high-risk areas.
Monsoon System Strengthening Across Pakistan
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has predicted widespread rainfall under the influence of a monsoon system, which has intensified over the Arabian Sea and is advancing towards Pakistan’s northwestern and central regions. The system is expected to trigger moderate to heavy downpours, which may cause flash floods in vulnerable catchment areas, especially in northern and northeastern Pakistan.
Rain Forecast for Islamabad and Punjab
In Islamabad, the PMD has forecast cloudy to partly cloudy weather with chances of thunderstorms and rain in the next two days. The same weather pattern is expected to affect adjoining areas including:
- Rawalpindi
- Murree
- Galiat
- Jhelum
- Attock
- Chakwal
- Gujrat
- Gujranwala
- Sialkot
- Narowal
These areas are particularly susceptible to urban flooding due to poor drainage systems and high population density. The NDMA has urged city administrations to clear stormwater drains and remain vigilant to prevent waterlogging.
Sindh and Balochistan Weather Outlook
In Sindh, including Karachi, Hyderabad, and Larkana, partly cloudy weather with rain in the evening or night is likely. Given the city’s fragile infrastructure, even moderate rainfall in Karachi has previously led to chaos, including flooded roads, prolonged power outages, and traffic gridlocks.
In Balochistan, rain is also expected across Quetta, Zhob, Turbat, and Gwadar, where heavy rain could lead to landslides and road blockages, especially in mountainous and remote areas.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Northern Areas: Higher Risk of Flash Floods
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Meteorological Department forecasts rain in:
- Peshawar
- Swat
- Dir
- Kohistan
- Malakand
- Bajaur
- Shangla
- Battagram
- Mansehra
- Abbottabad
- Haripur
Many of these regions are located in mountainous terrains and near rivers and streams that can swell quickly during heavy rainfall, causing flash floods and cutting off vital road links.
In Azad Jammu and Kashmir, including Muzaffarabad, Kotli, and Rawalakot, heavy to very heavy rainfall with thunderstorms is predicted. Local authorities have been asked to issue warnings to tourists and ensure safety measures are implemented in landslide-prone areas.
Gilgit-Baltistan: Rising Temperatures Raise GLOF Threats
The NDMA and PMD have raised alarms about a serious risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in Gilgit-Baltistan, particularly in areas like Shigar, Skardu, Hunza, and Ghizer, where dozens of glacial lakes have formed in recent years due to accelerating glacial melt caused by global warming.
“Local communities in Gilgit-Baltistan are already experiencing unusual water flow from glaciers. The risk of sudden outbursts is increasing,” said a senior official from the Pakistan Glacier Monitoring Center.
Tourists have been strongly advised to postpone visits to northern areas, while local residents are being encouraged to remain near higher ground and have evacuation plans ready in case of sudden floods.
NDMA Coordination with Provincial Disaster Authorities
The NDMA has activated coordination mechanisms with provincial and district disaster management authorities to monitor rainfall intensity, assess real-time flood risks, and dispatch rescue teams in emergencies. Emergency operation centers (EOCs) have been established in Islamabad and all provincial capitals to ensure 24/7 monitoring and response.
Key directives issued include:
- Activation of flood early warning systems
- Deployment of rescue boats and divers in flood-prone areas
- Mobilization of medical and food relief supplies
- Establishment of temporary shelters and relief camps
Precautionary Measures for Citizens
The NDMA and PMD have issued several public advisories to ensure safety during the forecasted extreme weather:
- Avoid unnecessary travel to mountainous and low-lying flood-prone areas.
- Do not attempt to cross flooded streams or rivers on foot or in vehicles.
- Stay away from power lines and electric poles during thunderstorms.
- Prepare emergency kits with essentials such as clean water, food, flashlights, and first-aid items.
- Keep mobile phones charged and follow weather updates from official channels.
Climate Change and the Increasing Frequency of Extreme Weather
Experts warn that the increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall events in Pakistan is linked to climate change. The country is among the top 10 nations most vulnerable to climate-induced disasters, according to the Global Climate Risk Index.
In recent years, monsoon-related floods have devastated large swathes of Pakistan. The 2022 floods, triggered by historic monsoon rains, affected over 33 million people, killed more than 1,700, and caused $30 billion in damages and losses.
With glaciers melting at an accelerated pace and erratic weather patterns becoming more common, early warnings, disaster preparedness, and climate-resilient infrastructure are now essential components of national planning.
Government and Public Response Needed
The government’s swift issuance of alerts and coordination with weather and disaster agencies shows a more proactive approach to disaster risk reduction. However, implementation at the grassroots level, particularly in rural and underdeveloped districts, remains a challenge.
NGOs and civil society organizations are also stepping up efforts to assist vulnerable communities by disseminating information, supporting emergency planning, and pre-positioning relief items in known flood zones.
Conclusion: Vigilance and Preparedness Key to Minimizing Damage
With heavy rainfall predicted across much of Pakistan in the next 48 hours, and flood and landslide risks elevated, the NDMA’s alert is a timely reminder of the importance of preparedness and collective responsibility. Citizens are urged to follow weather advisories, cooperate with local authorities, and help spread awareness in their communities.
In the face of increasingly unpredictable weather events, Pakistan must not only rely on short-term responses but also invest in climate adaptation strategies, disaster-resilient infrastructure, and community-based disaster risk management to build long-term resilience.
