Introduction: Renewed Diplomacy in the Middle East and Central Asia
Former U.S. President Donald Trump, known for reshaping Middle East diplomacy during his first term, is reportedly spearheading efforts to further expand the Abraham Accords, a landmark agreement that normalized diplomatic relations between Israel and several Muslim-majority countries. This time, his focus lies on the strategically significant region of Central Asia, with Azerbaijan being at the center of a potential breakthrough.
According to sources cited by a foreign news agency, the Trump-led team is engaged in intense diplomatic negotiations to bring Azerbaijan and other Central Asian countries into the Abraham Accords framework. These countries—while maintaining unofficial or low-level ties with Israel—have yet to officially formalize diplomatic relations. If successful, the initiative could reshape regional power dynamics, deepen military and economic partnerships, and signal broader acceptance of Israel in the Muslim world.
What Are the Abraham Accords? A Brief Overview
The Abraham Accords refer to a series of agreements brokered by the United States in 2020 and 2021, during Trump’s first term as president. Under this diplomatic initiative, several Arab nations, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, agreed to normalize ties with Israel, breaking away from decades of collective Arab rejectionism rooted in support for the Palestinian cause.
The Accords were hailed as a diplomatic success, opening up economic, technological, and security cooperation between Israel and participating Muslim-majority states. For Trump, it became a centerpiece of his foreign policy legacy, one he appears eager to expand upon if re-elected.
Azerbaijan’s Strategic Position in Trump’s Abraham Accords Expansion
Why Azerbaijan?
Sources close to the matter report that Azerbaijan, a Muslim-majority but secular and Shiite-dominated nation, is at the heart of Trump’s latest diplomatic overture. Located at the crossroads of Eastern Europe and Western Asia, Azerbaijan shares strong historical, military, and economic ties with Israel, including extensive cooperation in defense, agriculture, and energy.
Azerbaijan has purchased billions of dollars in Israeli military technology, including drones and missile systems. Israel, in return, imports nearly 40% of its oil from Azerbaijan, making the relationship quietly robust, albeit unofficial.
Trump’s team, led by Steve Witkoff—his peace envoy—and Aria Lightstone, a key Abraham Accords adviser, has met with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Baku to discuss the prospects of formalizing these ties under the Abraham Accords umbrella.
Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflict: A Complicating Factor
Another layer of complexity stems from Azerbaijan’s decades-long conflict with Armenia, particularly over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Trump’s team is reportedly exploring a broader peace agreement between these two rivals, with Azerbaijan’s inclusion in the Abraham Accords serving as a potential precondition.
However, the slow pace of peace talks between Baku and Yerevan remains a key obstacle, with ongoing skirmishes and deep-rooted mistrust threatening to derail progress.
Trump’s Broader Vision: Central Asia in the Spotlight
While Azerbaijan is a focal point, Trump’s team is also reaching out to other Central Asian nations, including:
- Kazakhstan
- Uzbekistan
- Turkmenistan
- Tajikistan
- Kyrgyzstan
The report indicates that Azerbaijani diplomats have already begun outreach to these countries as part of coordinated efforts to expand the Abraham Accords beyond the Middle East and North Africa.
Although the U.S. State Department has refrained from naming the exact countries under consideration, a senior official confirmed that expanding the Abraham Accords remains one of Trump’s top foreign policy priorities, should he return to office.
Why Central Asia? Strategic and Diplomatic Implications
Central Asia, a region historically under Russian and Chinese influence, is increasingly becoming a geopolitical battleground. For the United States and Israel, drawing these Muslim-majority nations into the Abraham Accords would:
- Undermine Iranian and Chinese regional influence
- Foster economic ties in technology, energy, and agriculture
- Open new defense partnerships
- Showcase a growing Muslim normalization of ties with Israel
Most Central Asian countries maintain neutral or cordial relations with Israel, but formal normalization could deepen regional cooperation on counter-terrorism, border security, and economic development.
Saudi Arabia: The Biggest Prize Still Out of Reach
While Trump’s Abraham Accords expansion strategy is making headway with smaller nations, the elephant in the room remains Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), has held backchannel talks with both U.S. and Israeli officials in recent years but has publicly tied recognition of Israel to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
After the recent escalation in Gaza, marked by widespread devastation, including the death of over 60,000 Palestinians—mostly women and children— and catastrophic humanitarian conditions, Riyadh has hardened its stance. Officials from the kingdom have repeatedly stressed that no normalization with Israel will take place until Palestine is recognized and peace is restored.
Saudi officials have also denounced Israel’s blockade of Gaza, which has cut off aid routes and caused famine-like conditions, particularly impacting children suffering from severe malnutrition.
In this context, any attempt to push Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords seems politically and diplomatically untenable in the near term.
Challenges and Skepticism: Will the New Round Succeed?
Despite some optimism, several hurdles could hinder Trump’s new peace push:
1. Slow Progress on Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks
Without resolution between Azerbaijan and Armenia, it’s unclear how much progress can be made toward formalizing Israel-Azerbaijan ties.
2. Internal Politics in Central Asia
Many Central Asian governments operate under authoritarian or semi-authoritarian regimes, where public opinion plays less of a role. However, political elites may be cautious about alienating Russia, China, or local Islamic groups, especially over an issue as sensitive as normalizing ties with Israel.
3. Uncertain U.S. Political Landscape
Since Trump is not currently in office, some experts question whether these efforts carry real weight without formal U.S. government backing. Still, with the 2024 U.S. election approaching, Trump’s foreign policy team appears to be laying groundwork for potential second-term action.
Geopolitical Consequences: A New Order Emerging?
If successful, this expansion of the Abraham Accords would further isolate Iran, reinforce U.S. and Israeli strategic depth in Eurasia, and challenge China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which runs through several of the targeted Central Asian countries.
Such developments could reshape diplomatic alignments in the Islamic world, showing that economic opportunity and security partnerships can outweigh longstanding ideological opposition to Israel.
Conclusion: A High-Stakes Diplomatic Gamble with Global Ramifications
Donald Trump’s renewed effort to expand the Abraham Accords into Central Asia, especially with Azerbaijan at the forefront, is a bold geopolitical move with far-reaching consequences. While the efforts are gaining traction in some areas, several roadblocks remain, including unresolved regional conflicts, geopolitical rivalries, and humanitarian crises in Gaza that have hardened positions against Israel.
The diplomatic journey to bring more Muslim countries into formal relations with Israel continues to be fraught with complexity, but it is also symbolic of changing global dynamics, where traditional alliances are being redrawn in real-time.
Only time will tell whether Trump’s peace mission—ambitious and controversial—will succeed in bringing more nations into the Abraham Accords, but one thing is certain: the Middle East and Central Asia will remain central to the story of 21st-century diplomacy.
