India has officially informed Pakistan of a possible flood threat under the framework of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), raising concerns about water levels in Punjab and other downstream regions. According to official reports, the Indian High Commission in Islamabad issued a notification to Pakistani authorities regarding the release of water into rivers flowing from Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. The development has sparked fears of potential flooding in various areas of Pakistan’s Punjab province, with local administrations placed on high alert and instructed to take preventive measures.
Background: The Indus Waters Treaty
The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan with the mediation of the World Bank, is regarded as one of the most successful water-sharing agreements in the world. Despite the tense relationship and multiple wars between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, the treaty has largely endured.
- Division of rivers: Under the agreement, the three western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — were allocated to Pakistan, while the three eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — were given to India.
- Water flow obligations: While India was permitted to use the western rivers for non-consumptive purposes such as hydroelectric power generation, it was obligated to allow an uninterrupted flow of water to Pakistan.
- Information sharing: The treaty also requires both countries to share information about water flow, dam construction, and emergency releases, particularly in cases where sudden discharges may pose a flood risk downstream.
The latest notification by India regarding potential flooding in the Tuvi River (a tributary within Jammu and Kashmir) falls under these obligations of advance intimation to prevent loss of life and property in Pakistan.
Details of the Latest Notification
According to sources within Pakistan’s Ministry of Water Resources, India officially communicated on the morning of August 24 that it would be releasing excess water into rivers flowing toward Pakistan.
- The Indian High Commission in Islamabad conveyed the warning to Pakistani officials in line with treaty provisions.
- The communication specifically mentioned the Tuvi River in Jammu and Kashmir, highlighting the likelihood of excess water discharge due to rainfall and upstream storage management.
- Following this alert, the Punjab administration in Pakistan has been instructed to remain vigilant, prepare for possible evacuations, and strengthen embankments in vulnerable areas.
Flood Risk in Punjab: Pakistan on High Alert
The Punjab province, being the breadbasket of Pakistan and home to major river systems, is particularly vulnerable to flooding caused by water discharges from India.
- District administrations in flood-prone regions such as Sialkot, Narowal, Gujranwala, and Multan have been directed to activate flood emergency plans.
- Rescue agencies and disaster management authorities (PDMA) have been instructed to keep boats, medical facilities, and relief supplies ready.
- Farmers living near riverbanks have been advised to shift livestock and move to safer ground to minimize losses.
Floods in Punjab not only displace thousands of people but also cause significant damage to crops such as wheat, rice, and sugarcane, leading to long-term economic consequences.
Historical Context: Flood Warnings and Disputes
This is not the first time India has alerted Pakistan about the release of water. In fact, the sharing of hydrological data and flood information has been a recurring feature of Indo-Pak relations, though not without controversy.
- Floods of 2010
- One of the worst floods in Pakistan’s history occurred in 2010, affecting nearly 20 million people.
- Pakistani officials accused India of releasing water without sufficient warning, though India denied any deliberate negligence.
- Regular Notifications
- India routinely provides flood-related data during the monsoon season (July to September) under the treaty framework.
- However, political tensions often overshadow the cooperation aspect, with both sides sometimes accusing each other of mismanagement.
- Hydroelectric Projects
- Pakistan has repeatedly raised concerns over Indian hydropower projects on the western rivers, claiming they could reduce water flow or be used as a strategic tool.
- India, on the other hand, insists its projects are run-of-the-river schemes and fully compliant with treaty provisions.
Thus, while the latest warning fits within the treaty’s cooperative framework, the underlying trust deficit between the two countries makes every such notification a matter of heightened sensitivity.
Climate Change and the Rising Flood Threat
Experts note that climate change has significantly increased the risk of both floods and droughts in South Asia.
- Erratic monsoons: Rainfall patterns in the region have become increasingly unpredictable, leading to sudden glacial melts and flash floods.
- Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs): In the Himalayan region, melting glaciers are forming unstable lakes that can burst, releasing massive volumes of water downstream.
- Increased flood vulnerability: Pakistan, in particular, has suffered devastating climate-related disasters, such as the 2022 super floods that submerged one-third of the country and displaced over 33 million people.
In this context, the timely sharing of flood-related information between India and Pakistan becomes not just a treaty obligation but a humanitarian necessity.
Strategic and Political Dimensions
Water has always been a sensitive issue in Indo-Pak relations. While the Indus Waters Treaty has been hailed globally, it has also been criticized by hardliners on both sides.
- In India, some political factions argue that the treaty is too generous to Pakistan and should be reconsidered.
- In Pakistan, there are frequent fears that India could use water as a strategic weapon, either by withholding flows during droughts or releasing them during floods.
- The notification about potential flooding could be seen by skeptics as both a compliance measure and a political maneuver, especially given the strained ties between the two nations in recent years.
Nevertheless, such exchanges of information highlight that even in times of diplomatic hostility, certain cooperative mechanisms between India and Pakistan remain functional.
Pakistan’s Preparedness and Preventive Measures
Following India’s warning, Pakistani authorities have stepped up efforts to prepare for any eventuality.
- National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) have been directed to monitor river flows continuously.
- Local administrations have begun clearing drainage channels, strengthening embankments, and identifying safe zones for evacuation.
- Awareness campaigns are being run in vulnerable districts to inform communities about emergency helplines and precautionary measures.
Officials emphasize that proactive preparation could minimize the potential damage if water levels rise significantly.
International Observers and the Role of the World Bank
The World Bank, which played a pivotal role in brokering the Indus Waters Treaty, continues to act as a neutral observer in disputes. While the Bank does not directly intervene in flood management, it remains a key guarantor of the treaty’s implementation.
International experts often cite the IWT as a model for transboundary water cooperation, even between adversarial states. The continued exchange of flood-related data — such as this latest notification — reinforces the treaty’s relevance more than six decades after its signing.
Conclusion: Cooperation Amidst Tensions
India’s official warning to Pakistan about the possible flood risk highlights the dual nature of Indo-Pak relations — marked by hostility in many areas but underpinned by cooperation in others.
While political and military disputes dominate the headlines, the Indus Waters Treaty remains a rare example of consistent collaboration. As climate change increases the unpredictability of floods and water flow, both nations will need to strengthen, not weaken, mechanisms for data sharing and joint risk management.
For Pakistan, the immediate priority is to prepare vulnerable communities and minimize losses. For India, fulfilling its treaty obligations bolsters its global image as a responsible actor. And for both nations, cooperation on water could serve as a small but significant step toward easing broader tensions.
