NASA has announced a significant update regarding asteroid 2024 YR4 — an object roughly the size of a 10-story building — stating that it is now more likely to impact the Moon rather than Earth. Once a subject of concern among planetary defense experts due to its potential threat to Earth, the asteroid’s projected trajectory has shifted based on new data and analysis. While the chances of an Earth collision have been significantly reduced, scientists are now closely monitoring the possibility of a lunar impact in December 2032.
Asteroid 2024 YR4: From Earth Threat to Lunar Concern
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected in late December 2024. With an estimated size of 174 to 220 feet (approximately 53 to 67 meters) in diameter — comparable to a 10- to 15-story building — the asteroid was initially flagged as a near-Earth object (NEO) of interest due to early orbital models suggesting a possible collision with Earth.
At one point, the estimated probability of 2024 YR4 striking Earth in 2032 stood at around 3.1%, enough to draw the attention of NASA, international space agencies, and the planetary defense community. Such a scenario would have had serious implications, considering that an asteroid of that size could release energy equivalent to several megatons of TNT upon impact.
Risk of Earth Impact Reduced to Near Zero
However, as new observational data became available through advanced tracking systems — including ground-based observatories and NASA’s state-of-the-art James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) — astronomers were able to refine their calculations. By February 2025, the probability of an Earth impact had been lowered to nearly zero, effectively ruling out the object as a direct threat to our planet.
This was a reassuring update for many, as the asteroid’s trajectory had become more accurately defined through repeated and highly precise measurements. These refined estimates were the result of a global collaborative effort by astronomers and space scientists who continue to monitor the paths of thousands of NEOs in order to prevent potential catastrophes.
Increased Probability of Lunar Impact in 2032
While Earth has been cleared from the asteroid’s projected impact path, the Moon may not be so lucky. Based on updated data, NASA has now increased the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon from 1.7% to 3.8%. Although still a relatively small chance, this near-doubling of impact probability has piqued the interest of scientists and space watchers alike.
The possible impact date is currently projected for December 22, 2032. If 2024 YR4 were to collide with the Moon, it would likely create a substantial crater and release significant energy. However, experts have emphasized that such an impact would not alter the Moon’s orbit or have any catastrophic consequences for Earth.
What Would Happen if the Asteroid Hits the Moon?
If the asteroid were to strike the Moon, the event would likely produce a new crater measuring between 500 to 1,000 meters in diameter, depending on the impact velocity and angle. The energy released could be equivalent to more than 5 megatons of TNT. While this would not pose any danger to Earth, the event would be of immense scientific interest.
Some experts suggest that if the impact occurs on the lunar near side (the side visible from Earth), it could potentially be observed from Earth through telescopes or even with the naked eye under certain conditions. Lunar orbiters and other scientific instruments could be directed toward the site of impact to gather valuable data about the crater formation process, material ejection, and subsurface composition.
Scientific Importance of a Potential Lunar Impact
A real-time asteroid impact on the Moon presents a rare scientific opportunity. Unlike Earth, where atmospheric friction often disintegrates smaller asteroids before they reach the surface, the Moon has no atmosphere, allowing scientists to study pure impact events in their entirety. Observing and analyzing such an impact could improve our understanding of planetary geology, crater formation, and even aid in refining future asteroid impact models for Earth.
This information could also be useful in the development of future lunar infrastructure and bases, as humanity plans for more permanent outposts on the Moon.
The Role of NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope and Global Monitoring
The James Webb Space Telescope played a crucial role in the revised assessments of 2024 YR4’s path. Emergency observations conducted earlier this year enabled scientists to more accurately determine the asteroid’s size, shape, surface composition, and rotational dynamics. These characteristics influence how the asteroid moves through space — especially under the influence of solar radiation and gravitational interactions, known as the Yarkovsky effect.
Ground-based observatories around the world also contributed data that allowed scientists to create more detailed orbital models. The combination of space- and ground-based monitoring has proven vital in predicting and managing near-Earth object risks.
Conclusion: A Celestial Close Call Worth Watching
While asteroid 2024 YR4 no longer poses a threat to Earth, its increased likelihood of impacting the Moon in 2032 makes it a fascinating event to monitor. The celestial body’s potential collision with the Moon provides an excellent chance for scientists to gain deeper insights into space dynamics, asteroid behavior, and impact phenomena.
NASA and its international partners will continue to observe 2024 YR4 in the years leading up to 2032. Should the asteroid strike the Moon, it will become a major milestone in observational astronomy, offering real-world data that could shape future planetary defense efforts.
