Pakistan’s cotton sector, a cornerstone of the national economy and the lifeline of the textile industry, is witnessing mixed trends in production across provinces. While Punjab—the country’s largest cotton-producing region—has reported an abnormal decline in cotton arrival, Sindh has shown signs of improvement compared to earlier in the season.
According to the latest figures released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), total cotton arrivals across the country have dropped by 17% as of August 15, 2025, raising concerns for both farmers and textile industrialists. These contrasting provincial patterns highlight the complex challenges facing Pakistan’s agriculture sector, ranging from unpredictable weather patterns to fluctuating demand from mills.
Provincial Trends in Cotton Production
Punjab: From Growth to Decline
Punjab initially showed promising results. By July 31, 2025, cotton arrivals in Punjab were reported to be 3% higher than the same period last year. However, in just two weeks, the situation reversed drastically. By August 15, 2025, arrivals had slipped to 6% lower than last year’s levels, marking an unexpected downturn.
The sudden reversal is being attributed largely to heavy monsoon rains across key cotton-growing districts, including Multan, Bahawalpur, Vehari, and Rahim Yar Khan. The rains not only damaged standing crops but also impacted the quality of harvested cotton, making it less attractive to buyers.
Sindh: Signs of Recovery
In contrast, Sindh’s cotton production has shown signs of resilience. As of July 31, cotton arrivals in Sindh were down by a worrying 47% compared to last year. But by August 15, this decline had eased significantly, standing at 24% lower year-on-year.
Experts believe that improved weather conditions in lower Sindh districts such as Hyderabad, Sanghar, Mirpurkhas, and Nawabshah allowed for healthier crop development and faster picking. If the trend continues, Sindh could partially offset the losses being faced in Punjab.
Impact of Weather and Quality Issues
Heavy Rains and Crop Damage
Chairman of the Cotton Ginners Forum, Ehsan-ul-Haq, explained that prolonged rainfall in Punjab’s cotton zones severely affected both the yield and quality of cotton. Excessive moisture led to issues such as boll rot, pest infestations, and discoloration of cotton fibers, all of which reduce the market value of the crop.
Textile Mills Reluctant to Purchase
Textile mills, which are the primary buyers of raw cotton, have shown reluctance to purchase rain-damaged cotton due to concerns over quality and efficiency in spinning. Mills prefer cleaner, stronger fibers that can ensure better output in yarn production. As a result, a large portion of harvested cotton in Punjab has been rejected or is being sold at lower prices, directly impacting farmers’ earnings.
Ginning Industry in Crisis
Inactivity of Ginning Factories
Due to lower demand for damaged cotton, many ginning factories in Punjab cities such as Multan, Khanewal, and Bahawalpur have temporarily halted operations. These factories, which separate cotton fiber from seeds, cannot sustain operations when mills are unwilling to buy.
Expected Reactivation
However, Ehsan-ul-Haq noted that with expected improvement in crop arrivals in the next two weeks, several currently inactive ginning factories may resume operations. This reactivation could boost cotton arrivals in Punjab and stabilize prices for farmers.
National Production Outlook
According to the PCGA’s latest statistics:
- A total of 887,400 bales of cotton had reached ginning factories nationwide by August 15, 2025.
- This represents a 17% decline compared to the same period last year.
Despite this decline, experts remain cautiously optimistic that national cotton production will increase in the coming weeks as Sindh’s crop continues to improve and Punjab stabilizes.
Economic Importance of Cotton in Pakistan
Backbone of the Textile Industry
Cotton is often referred to as the “white gold” of Pakistan, providing the backbone for the country’s textile sector, which accounts for nearly 60% of Pakistan’s total exports. From spinning and weaving to garment manufacturing, the entire textile value chain depends heavily on consistent cotton supply.
Employment and Rural Livelihoods
Millions of farmers across Punjab and Sindh rely on cotton cultivation for their livelihoods. The crop also sustains thousands of ginners, spinners, transporters, and traders, making it one of the most labor-intensive industries in Pakistan.
Foreign Exchange Earnings
A decline in domestic cotton production often forces Pakistan to import raw cotton, straining foreign exchange reserves. Given the current economic challenges, including inflation and trade deficits, a weak cotton crop could have serious macroeconomic consequences.
Challenges Facing Cotton Growers
Climate Change and Weather Extremes
Unpredictable weather patterns linked to climate change are increasingly disrupting cotton production in Pakistan. Sudden heavy rains, rising temperatures, and shifting monsoon patterns have created uncertainty for farmers who rely on stable weather conditions for crop planning.
Pest Attacks
Cotton crops in Punjab are also vulnerable to pest infestations, such as the notorious pink bollworm and whitefly, which flourish in humid post-rain conditions. These pests reduce yields and further compromise the quality of cotton.
High Input Costs
Farmers are also grappling with rising costs of seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, and electricity for tube wells. With cotton prices fluctuating, many farmers find themselves unable to recover production costs, reducing their incentive to grow cotton in the future.
Government’s Role and Policy Measures
Support Programs
The government has previously announced support packages for cotton farmers, including subsidies on seeds and fertilizers and measures to stabilize market prices. However, many growers argue that these efforts remain insufficient compared to the scale of losses caused by climate change and market volatility.
Need for Research and Innovation
Experts are calling for greater investment in research and development of climate-resistant cotton varieties, improved pest control methods, and better irrigation systems to help stabilize production.
Collaboration with Textile Industry
Stronger collaboration between farmers, ginners, and textile millers is also needed to ensure that supply chain inefficiencies are reduced and quality standards are maintained from farm to factory.
Future Outlook
Cautious Optimism
While the abnormal decline in Punjab’s cotton arrivals is alarming, the improvement in Sindh’s production provides a glimmer of hope. Analysts believe that if weather conditions remain favorable over the next few weeks, Pakistan could still achieve a moderate recovery in overall cotton production.
Impact on Textile Exports
The textile industry is watching the developments closely. Any prolonged shortfall in cotton arrivals could hamper yarn and fabric exports, which are critical for Pakistan’s struggling economy. However, if Sindh continues its recovery and Punjab stabilizes, textile exporters may still avoid large-scale raw cotton imports.
Conclusion
The cotton sector in Pakistan is at a crossroads. On one hand, Punjab’s abnormal decline in cotton arrivals highlights the severe impact of climate change, quality issues, and market inefficiencies. On the other, Sindh’s steady recovery suggests that resilience and regional variation can still provide balance to national output.
Moving forward, the combined efforts of farmers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders will be essential to stabilize cotton production, protect farmer livelihoods, and ensure the textile industry’s continued contribution to Pakistan’s economy.
For now, all eyes remain on the next two weeks, which could determine whether Pakistan’s cotton season ends in disappointment—or cautious relief.
