Despite bold promises and historic commitments made at COP28 in 2023, the world is falling drastically short of its renewable energy goals. According to a recent analysis by Ember, a global energy think tank, renewable energy generation has grown by a mere 2% since the landmark climate summit—far below the pace needed to meet the agreed targets.
This sobering assessment comes as countries face mounting pressure to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels and transition toward a cleaner, more sustainable energy future. The global commitment made at COP28 was to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, a goal that now appears increasingly out of reach given the current rate of progress.
The COP28 Commitment: Tripling Global Renewable Capacity by 2030
During COP28, world leaders reached a historic consensus to triple the global renewable energy generation capacity by 2030 in an urgent bid to curb global warming and meet the targets outlined in the Paris Agreement.
The collective target was set at 11 terawatts (TW) of renewable energy generation capacity by the end of the decade—an ambitious yet critical benchmark to limit global temperature rise to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
At the time, the world’s total renewable capacity stood at approximately 3.7 TW. The 2030 target of 11 TW therefore required a tripling of capacity within just seven years. However, current trends suggest that countries are only on track to double their capacity, not triple it, which would result in only 7.4 TW by 2030.
This shortfall of 3.6 TW (one-third of the original target) is alarming and suggests that despite lofty rhetoric, actual implementation is lagging behind.
Stagnant Progress: Only 2% Growth Since COP28
Ember’s latest data analysis reveals that since COP28, the global capacity for renewable energy generation has grown by just 2%—a painfully slow pace given the urgency of the climate crisis.
This marginal increase underscores the disconnect between international climate pledges and domestic energy policies, highlighting a lack of political will, insufficient financing, and regulatory barriers that are hampering renewable energy development.
The slow progress also raises concerns about the credibility of global climate commitments and casts doubt on whether the world can transition away from fossil fuels in time to avert environmental catastrophe.
National Commitments: Who’s Leading, Who’s Lagging
European Union Shows Some Progress
Since COP28, 22 countries have updated their renewable energy targets, with the majority coming from the European Union (EU). The EU has traditionally been a global leader in sustainable energy policy, and countries like Germany, France, and the Netherlands have made incremental progress toward enhancing their 2030 renewable energy plans.
However, even within the EU, progress has been uneven. While some nations are aggressively scaling up solar and wind energy, others are struggling due to economic constraints, grid limitations, and local opposition to large-scale renewable projects.
Non-EU Countries Lag Behind
Outside the EU, only seven countries have revised their renewable energy targets since COP28. This limited engagement underscores a global lack of urgency, particularly among major energy-consuming nations.
Top 20 Electricity Producers: Little to No Change in Targets
Perhaps most concerning is the finding that the 20 largest electricity-producing countries—which account for more than 80% of global electricity generation—have not significantly updated their renewable energy goals.
United States: No National 2030 Renewable Energy Target
The United States, the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter and a global energy powerhouse, still does not have a national renewable energy target for 2030. Although federal legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the earlier One Big Beauty Bill have provided incentives for clean energy, there remains no unified national mandate to meet the COP28 goal.
This lack of a national target presents a fragmented policy landscape, with individual states like California and New York leading the charge, while others lag significantly behind. Experts warn that without a cohesive federal target, the U.S. risks falling behind global competitors in the clean energy transition.
India: Static 500 GW Target
India’s renewable energy target of 500 gigawatts (GW) remains unchanged since COP28. While India has made strides in solar power and has ambitious national programs like the International Solar Alliance, its coal consumption continues to rise, offsetting many of the gains in renewable energy deployment.
With a growing population and increasing energy demands, India faces the dual challenge of meeting economic development goals while honoring climate commitments.
Russia: No Target, No Plans
Russia, one of the world’s largest oil and gas exporters, has no renewable energy target for 2030 and is not expected to announce one. Its national energy policy continues to be dominated by fossil fuels, and the government has shown little appetite for large-scale investment in renewable infrastructure.
Given its vast natural resources and geopolitical stance, Russia’s lack of participation in global climate initiatives remains a critical gap in the world’s clean energy puzzle.
China: Awaiting the 15th Five-Year Plan
China, the world’s largest carbon emitter and leader in renewable energy investment, is currently finalizing its 15th Five-Year Plan, which is expected to include updated targets for 2030. While China has made massive investments in solar and wind, the country also continues to build new coal-fired power plants, reflecting a complex and sometimes contradictory energy strategy.
Analysts are watching closely to see whether the new plan will provide the policy clarity needed to align with the COP28 goal.
South Africa: Target Update in Progress
South Africa, another significant electricity producer, is in the process of updating its renewable energy targets. The country faces persistent energy shortages and a heavily coal-dependent energy grid, but recent policy shifts suggest a growing commitment to diversifying its energy mix.
Barriers to Renewable Energy Expansion
Several structural and political challenges are impeding the global transition to renewable energy:
- Lack of Political Will: Many governments are prioritizing short-term economic growth over long-term climate sustainability.
- Inadequate Financing: Developing nations face difficulty securing funding for renewable infrastructure.
- Grid Infrastructure Limitations: Aging or underdeveloped electricity grids make it difficult to integrate variable renewable energy sources.
- Permitting and Regulatory Delays: Bureaucratic hurdles delay the approval and construction of renewable projects.
- Global Economic Uncertainty: Inflation, interest rate hikes, and geopolitical tensions are shifting focus away from climate goals.
The Urgent Need for Acceleration
Climate scientists warn that without immediate and large-scale expansion of renewable energy, the world will likely fail to meet the Paris Agreement goals. A delay in scaling up clean energy would result in:
- Increased reliance on fossil fuels
- Higher carbon emissions
- Greater climate-related disasters
- Economic instability in vulnerable regions
The current 2% growth rate in global renewable generation is far below the trajectory needed. According to Ember, renewable energy capacity must grow by at least 15% per year through 2030 to stay on track—a target that now appears increasingly ambitious under current circumstances.
Conclusion: From Rhetoric to Reality
The global community’s response to the renewable energy challenge remains uneven and insufficient. While COP28 symbolized a unified vision, real-world progress has been minimal. The fact that renewable energy has grown by just 2% since the summit should serve as a wake-up call for policymakers, investors, and civil society.
The road to 11 TW of renewable capacity by 2030 is still open—but only if nations take decisive action, update their targets, accelerate implementation, and back their commitments with meaningful investments and policy reforms.
Time is running out. The world must move beyond pledges and into the realm of execution if it hopes to secure a sustainable, climate-resilient future.
