Power Plays amid Shifting Sands: Geopolitical Re-Calibrations in Post-Assad Middle East

The Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS), Lahore hosted a seminar titled, “Power Plays amid Shifting Sands: Geopolitical Re-Calibrations in Post-Assad Middle East” on 30 January 2025. This seminar served as a platform for renowned diplomats and scholars to assess the evolving dynamics of the post-Assad Middle East. The seminar began with opening remarks by Ambassador Muhammad Haroon Shaukat (Retd), Director at CASS, Lahore, who emphasised the necessity to understand the complexity of the forces at play, to identify pathways for ensuring durable peace and stability and finding just and equitable solutions to the intractable problems of the region.
Ambassador Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry (Retd), Former Foreign Secretary, delivered the keynote address. Examining the shifting sands, he noted that the world is no longer unipolar; however, several centres of power seek to act unilaterally, indicating that the spirit of globalisation is evaporating. In the Middle Eastern context, he added that the effectiveness of Arab resistance appears to be withering, while the UN has remained irrelevant in the series of crises that have emerged in the region. He further added that the United States’ interest in the Middle East has shifted from pursuing peace (previously driven by Arab oil) to ensuring Israel’s interest.
Dr Nazir Hussain, former Dean of Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, noted that regional powers in the Middle East are engaged in a zero-sum competition. The competing narratives in the region, whether imperial or non-imperial, are at play, with the primary objective of peeling Syria away from Tehran’s strategic orbit. Ambassador Javed Hafeez, a former Pakistani diplomat, noted that the US-Israel relationship has been further cemented after the Gaza War. He drew an analogy between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, calling them two sides of the same coin, as both believe in ethnic cleansing and occupation. The only difference, he stated, is that one is perpetrating it in South Asia while the other is in the Middle East. He added that there is a weak interest among Arab states in collective issues.
In his closing remarks, Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd), President of CASS Lahore, noted that the fall of the Assad regime has left Syria fractured, widening a power vacuum with far-reaching geopolitical consequences. The situation presents both challenges and opportunities for regional stability. The international community must prioritise inclusivity, reconciliation, and reconstruction to prevent further chaos. Pakistan remains committed to Syria’s sovereignty and stability, advocating for collective efforts to ensure peace in the region.
The interactive session sparked valuable discussions. Speakers emphasised that Pakistan has stakes in the Middle East security architecture, particularly in the context of non-traditional security issues. They highlighted the importance of remaining low on rhetoric and high on action for Pakistan. The global order is in flux, with countries like India playing on both sides. World powers are likely to refrain from outright reactions, aligning with their interests. Given this evolving landscape, Pakistan must adopt a cautious approach.